
Articles
… related to The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers
Wyn Shares and Ci Youngs
by Jason Brannon
August 27, 2004
In Bill James’ Win Shares there’s an essay titled “Win Shares and MVP Voting,” in which he compares every MVP to that season’s Win Shares leader. Throughout history, the MVP has led the league in Win Shares about 40 percent of the time, and come within 2 Win Shares of the leader about half the time (James considers distinctions of less than three Win Shares to be insignificant). At the end, he writes:
I’m not going to chart out all the Cy Young leaders in this way… you can if you want to. I think we match the Cy Young vote a little better than the MVP vote, just because there tend to be 2 or 3 good candidates for a Cy Young award, and 3 to 5 for the MVP award. But I shouldn’t say that, because I haven’t checked what the match is with the new data.Well, I decided to do just that — to find out how often the Cy Young Award winner leads the league in Win Shares. What follows is a listing of the pitching Win Shares leader in each season (I ignored their batting Win Shares), along with the Cy Young award winner (the numbers in parentheses are Win Shares), followed occasionally by my brilliant observations. As to whether or not Win Shares matches the Cy Young vote better than the MVP vote, you’ll have to skip to the end. No, wait! God, what am I saying? Read every word or else the answer won’t actually appear! We have the technology! The Cy Young Award was introduced following the 1956 season, with one winner for both leagues until 1967, when it was split.
- 1956 ML Shares Cy: Early Wynn (27)
- 1956 ML Actual Cy: Don Newcombe (25)
- 1957 ML Shares Cy: Jim Bunning (26)
- 1957 ML Actual Cy: Warren Spahn (22)
- 1958 ML Shares Cy: Warren Spahn and Sam Jones (23)
- 1958 ML Actual Cy: Bob Turley (18)
- 1959 ML Shares Cy: Vern Law (24)
- 1959 ML Actual Cy: Early Wynn (21)
- 1960 ML Shares Cy: Lindy McDaniel (25)
- 1960 ML Actual Cy: Vern Law (21)
- 1961 ML Shares Cy: Warren Spahn (23)
- 1961 ML Actual Cy: Whitey Ford (22)
- 1962 ML Shares Cy: Bob Purkey (26)
- 1962 ML Actual Cy: Don Drysdale (24)
- 1963 ML Shares Cy: Koufax and Dick Ellsworth (32)
- 1963 ML Actual Cy: Sandy Koufax (32)
- 1964 ML Shares Cy: Dean Chance (32)
- 1964 ML Actual Cy: Dean Chance (32)
- 1965 ML Shares Cy: Sandy Koufax (33)
- 1965 ML Actual Cy: Sandy Koufax (33)
- 1966 ML Shares Cy: Sandy Koufax (35)
- 1966 ML Actual Cy: Sandy Koufax (35)
- 1967 NL Shares Cy: Jim Bunning (25)
- 1967 NL Actual Cy: Mike McCormick (20)
- 1967 AL Shares Cy: Joe Horlen (23)
- 1967 AL Actual Cy: Jim Lonborg (19)
- 1968 NL Shares Cy: Bob Gibson (36)
- 1968 NL Actual Cy: Bob Gibson (36)
- 1968 AL Shares Cy: Denny McLain (33)
- 1968 AL Actual Cy: Denny McLain (33)
- 1969 NL Shares Cy: Seaver and Gibson (32)
- 1969 NL Actual Cy: Tom Seaver (32)
- 1969 AL Shares Cy: Denny McLain (29)
- 1969 AL Actual Cy: Denny McLain (29) and Mike Cuellar (24)
- 1970 NL Shares Cy: Bob Gibson (26)
- 1970 NL Actual Cy: Bob Gibson (26)
- 1970 AL Shares Cy: Sam McDowell (30)
- 1970 AL Actual Cy: Jim Perry (21)
- 1971 NL Shares Cy: Fergie Jenkins (35)
- 1971 NL Actual Cy: Fergie Jenkins (35)
- 1971 AL Shares Cy: Wilbur Wood (33)
- 1971 AL Actual Cy: Vida Blue (30)
- 1972 NL Shares Cy: Steve Carlton (40)
- 1972 NL Actual Cy: Steve Carlton (40)
- 1972 AL Shares Cy: Gaylord Perry (39)
- 1972 AL Actual Cy: Gaylord Perry (39)
- 1973 NL Shares Cy: Tom Seaver (29)
- 1973 NL Actual Cy: Tom Seaver (29)
- 1973 AL Shares Cy: John Hiller (31)
- 1973 AL Actual Cy: Jim Palmer (28)
- 1974 NL Shares Cy: Phil Niekro (28)
- 1974 NL Actual Cy: Mike Marshall (21)
- 1974 AL Shares Cy: Gaylord Perry (30)
- 1974 AL Actual Cy: Catfish Hunter (27)
- 1975 NL Shares Cy: Randy Jones (28)
- 1975 NL Actual Cy: Tom Seaver (26)
- 1975 AL Shares Cy: Jim Palmer (31)
- 1975 AL Actual Cy: Jim Palmer (31)
- 1976 NL Shares Cy: Jones, P. Niekro, Rau, and Montefusco (21)
- 1976 NL Actual Cy: Randy Jones (21)
- 1976 AL Shares Cy: Palmer, Fidrych, and Tanana (27)
- 1976 AL Actual Cy: Jim Palmer (27)
- 1977 NL Shares Cy: Bruce Sutter (27)
- 1977 NL Actual Cy: Steve Carlton (25)
- 1977 AL Shares Cy: Jim Palmer (29)
- 1977 AL Actual Cy: Sparky Lyle (20)
- 1978 NL Shares Cy: Phil Niekro (30)
- 1978 NL Actual Cy: Gaylord Perry (18)
- 1978 AL Shares Cy: Ron Guidry (31)
- 1978 AL Actual Cy: Ron Guidry (31)
- 1979 NL Shares Cy: Phil Niekro (24)
- 1979 NL Actual Cy: Bruce Sutter (22)
- 1979 AL Shares Cy: Jim Kern (25)
- 1979 AL Actual Cy: Mike Flanagan (23)
- 1980 NL Shares Cy: Steve Carlton (29)
- 1980 NL Actual Cy: Steve Carlton (29)
- 1980 AL Shares Cy: Mike Norris (25)
- 1980 AL Actual Cy: Steve Stone (20)
- 1981 NL Shares Cy: Valenzuela and Seaver (17)
- 1981 NL Actual Cy: Fernando Valenzuela (17)
- 1981 AL Shares Cy: Steve McCatty (18)
- 1981 AL Actual Cy: Rollie Fingers (17)
- 1982 NL Shares Cy: Steve Carlton and Joe Niekro (25)
- 1982 NL Actual Cy: Steve Carlton (25)
- 1982 AL Shares Cy: Dave Stieb (25)
- 1982 AL Actual Cy: Pete Vuckovich (13)
Demolished all the old records for mediocrity by a Cy Young Award winner. The worst ERA by a Cy Young winner used to be 3.23, by Steve Stone in 1980; Vuckovich was 3.33. The worst strikeout-to-walk ratio used to be 1.31-1 by Bob Turley in 1958; Vuckovich wasn’t even close to that (1.03-1). He allowed more hits per innings than any Cy Young winner ever by far (he allowed 9.4 per nine innings; no one else has been over nine), which combined with more than four walks per game gave him a total of 13.56 runners on per nine innings, almost two runners per game over the previous worst (11.65 by Steve Stone). He pitched only 223 innings, 22 less than any other starter to win Cy Young recognition in a full season; his 18 wins are the fewest ever, with the same qualifications. I think it’s just an incredibly bad selection.
- 1983 NL Shares Cy: Mario Soto (25)
- 1983 NL Actual Cy: John Denny (23)
- 1983 AL Shares Cy: Dan Quisenberry (28)
- 1983 AL Actual Cy: La Marr Hoyt (20)
The “record” [for the highest ERA for a Cy Young winner] is held by LaMarr Hoyt, who went 24-10 with a 3.66 ERA for the White Sox in 1983. It was a good season, obviously, but in 1983 a 3.66 ERA wasn’t all that good. And here’s the parallel with 2004 … in 1983, obviously the best pitcher in the American League was Royals reliever Dan Quisenberry. One of the last bullpen aces (as opposed to closers), Quiz saved 45 games and posted a 1.94 ERA. In addition to Hoyt, three other starters won at least 20 games. But none of the 20-game winners had great ERA’s, which left the voters to choose Hoyt and Quisenberry. And they blew it.
- 1984 NL Shares Cy: Bruce Sutter (23)
- 1984 NL Actual Cy: Rick Sutcliffe (18)
- 1984 AL Shares Cy: Dave Stieb (25)
- 1984 AL Actual Cy: Willie Hernandez (24)
- 1985 NL Shares Cy: Dwight Gooden (33)
- 1985 NL Actual Cy: Dwight Gooden (33)
- 1985 AL Shares Cy: Saberhagen and Stieb (24)
- 1985 AL Actual Cy: Bret Saberhagen (24)
- 1986 NL Shares Cy: Mike Scott (27)
- 1986 NL Actual Cy: Mike Scott (27)
- 1986 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (29)
- 1986 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (29)
- 1987 NL Shares Cy: Orel Hershiser (21)
- 1987 NL Actual Cy: Steve Bedrosian (16)
- 1987 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (28)
- 1987 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (28)
- 1988 NL Shares Cy: Orel Hershiser (25)
- 1988 NL Actual Cy: Orel Hershiser (25)
- 1988 AL Shares Cy: Frank Viola (25)
- 1988 AL Actual Cy: Frank Viola (25)
- 1989 NL Shares Cy: Orel Hershiser (21)
- 1989 NL Actual Cy: Mark Davis (19)
- 1989 AL Shares Cy: Bret Saberhagen (28)
- 1989 AL Actual Cy: Bret Saberhagen (28)
- 1990 NL Shares Cy: Drabek and Viola (20)
- 1990 NL Actual Cy: Doug Drabek (20)
- 1990 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (28)
- 1990 AL Actual Cy: Bob Welch (18)
- 1991 NL Shares Cy: Tom Glavine (23)
- 1991 NL Actual Cy: Tom Glavine (23)
- 1991 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (25)
- 1991 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (25)
- 1992 NL Shares Cy: Greg Maddux (27)
- 1992 NL Actual Cy: Greg Maddux (27)
- 1992 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (26)
- 1992 AL Actual Cy: Dennis Eckersley (18)
- 1993 NL Shares Cy: Rijo and Maddux (25)
- 1993 NL Actual Cy: Greg Maddux (25)
- 1993 AL Shares Cy: Kevin Appier (27)
- 1993 AL Actual Cy: Jack McDowell (21)
- 1994 NL Shares Cy: Greg Maddux (26)
- 1994 NL Actual Cy: Greg Maddux (26)
- 1994 AL Shares Cy: David Cone (20)
- 1995 NL Shares Cy: Greg Maddux (30)
- 1995 NL Actual Cy: Greg Maddux (30)
- 1995 AL Shares Cy: Randy Johnson (22)
- 1995 AL Actual Cy: Randy Johnson (22)
- 1996 NL Shares Cy: Smoltz and Brown (26)
- 1996 NL Actual Cy: John Smoltz (26)
- 1996 AL Shares Cy: Pat Hentgen (24)
- 1996 AL Actual Cy: Pat Hentgen (24)
- 1997 NL Shares Cy: Pedro Martinez (26)
- 1997 NL Actual Cy: Pedro Martinez (26)
- 1997 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (32)
- 1997 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (32)
- 1998 NL Shares Cy: Brown and Maddux (25)
- 1998 NL Actual Cy: Tom Glavine (23)
- 1998 AL Shares Cy: Roger Clemens (25)
- 1998 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (25)
- 1999 NL Shares Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 1999 NL Actual Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 1999 AL Shares Cy: Pedro Martinez (27)
- 1999 AL Actual Cy: Pedro Martinez (27)
- 2000 NL Shares Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 2000 NL Actual Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 2000 AL Shares Cy: Pedro Martinez (29)
- 2000 AL Actual Cy: Pedro Martinez (29)
- 2001 NL Shares Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 2001 NL Actual Cy: Randy Johnson (26)
- 2001 AL Shares Cy: Joe Mays (22)
- 2001 AL Actual Cy: Roger Clemens (19)
- 2002 NL Shares Cy: Randy Johnson (29)
- 2002 NL Actual Cy: Randy Johnson (29)
- 2002 AL Shares Cy: Barry Zito (25)
- 2002 AL Actual Cy: Barry Zito (25)
- 2003 NL Shares Cy: Eric Gagne (25)
- 2003 NL Actual Cy: Eric Gagne (25)
- 2003 AL Shares Cy: Halladay, Hudson, and Loaiza (23)
- 2003 AL Actual Cy: Roy Halladay (23)